Overview of inkjet market in the second half of 2015 and outlook for 2016
release date: Source: China inkjet editor: lychee Views: 1488 copyright and disclaimer
core tip: the construction ceramics market in the second half of 2015 can not be described as bloody. Almost every day, negative news such as closing, stopping, escaping, and begging are filled with the mainstream information group of the industry, which is no longer repeated one by one. This is a phenomenon I have never seen in 25 years of practice. Under such a sluggish economic situation, the kiln shutdown rate in the second half of this year is estimated to reach more than 40%, setting a new record for the ceramic industry. Moreover, two months before the lunar new year, more than half of the kilns have been shut down. After December, it is estimated that 70% or 80% of the kilns have been shut down, and the kiln shutdown is the earliest in the calendar year. The main situation of the inkjet machine and ink market in the second half of 2015 is as follows:
[China Packaging News] the construction ceramics market in the second half of 2015 can not be described as bloody. Almost every day, negative news such as closing, stopping, escaping, and discussing are filled with the mainstream information group of the industry, which is no longer repeated one by one. This is a phenomenon I have never seen in 25 years of practice. Under such a sluggish economic situation, the kiln shutdown rate in the second half of this year is estimated to reach more than 40%, setting a new record for the ceramic industry. Moreover, two months before the lunar new year, more than half of the kilns have been shut down. After December, it is estimated that 70% or 80% of the kilns have been shut down, and the kiln shutdown is the earliest in the calendar year. The main situation of inkjet machine and ink market in the second half of the year is as follows:
I. new machines and brand share
about 200 new inkjet machines were added in the second half of the year, a sharp decrease from 300 in the first half of the year. It was originally predicted that there would be a total of about 600 units in the whole year, but now it seems that even with dozens of exported units, it cannot be achieved. By the end of the year, there were about 3500 inkjet machines in the ceramic industry in China. (during the same period, there were about 550 in India, about 140 in Indonesia, more than 130 in Iran, nearly 115 in Vietnam, 26 in Bangladesh and 15 in Pakistan)
brand share: domestic hope, xinjingtai and Meijia three mainstream inkjet machine brands maintain a total share of 60~70%, and foreign system, Tiangong Ferrari, kerajet, BT and kuaida equal account for more than 10%. Other markets are divided up by domestic Taiwei, Jingtao, Caishen, Gongzheng, etc
second, the price competition of inkjet machine is fierce, which is close to the operating cost price, and the production enterprises are unprofitable.
due to the market 2. The measurement range: 0 (3) 00kn field has shrunk, the products are mature, and the differentiation is less, the competition between domestic inkjet machine brands is very fierce, coupled with the sharp decline of the euro exchange rate, European inkjet machines have also joined the price war. Although there are still not many machines that are really sold to China, it has further pushed down the price of inkjet machines. At present, the market price of 350/4 color models is only more than 600000; 910/5 color fell below 1.9 million, and the price of some models is already the material cost! We estimate that inkjet brands with annual sales of less than 100 units are at a loss because of the high purchase cost of nozzles. We have also heard that some peers, like some ceramic factories, have no money to buy materials (sprinklers), and even employees' wages are in arrears for several months, with a worrying prospect
third, the amount of ink does not increase but decreases, and the price hovers at a low level.
theoretically, more than 500 inkjet machines have been added this year. Even if some machines have been eliminated at the same time, the number of machines has increased by more than 10%. However, due to the high suspension rate, the ink consumption has decreased this year, and the price has decreased over the same period last year, so the ink business this year is also very difficult. Enterprises with insufficient funds are struggling. As far as we know, ten or eight companies that originally planned to enter the market have finally opted out, and many enterprises have lost tens of millions of dollars as a result
in terms of market share, Dow and kanglitai continue to be far ahead of their domestic counterparts, accounting for more than 50% in total. The market share of itaka and taurisi abroad has fallen sharply since the second half of last year, but so far it has been in a phased stability, accounting for about 20%. Other shares are shared by other domestic brands. Entering the second half of this year, it is obvious that ink suppliers have quit or not entered. Like inkjet brands, many enterprises have voluntarily given up in recent years, which shows the fierce market competition
IV. The collection of receivables is difficult, and the business risks of inkjet machines and ink suppliers increase.
as we enter the second half of this year, nine out of ten ceramic factories are in financial difficulties, and the agreed payment cycle has been delayed repeatedly. Some cumulative payment periods exceed one year, plus dozens of companies that have closed, stopped, merged and transferred, all of their peers have been dragged down. Generally speaking, large-scale machine and ink suppliers are owed tens of millions of yuan, hundreds of millions more. And the recovery time seems to be far away, and may even become bad debts
v. functional inks are generally mature, and many have been applied in batches.
functional inks that began last year are mature very quickly. Now there are many ink brands in batch production, such as concave glaze, brushed glaze, anion glaze, metal glaze, etc. However, because it is a niche product, the market demand is limited, which is difficult to produce too much benefit for ink enterprises
VI. there is no major breakthrough in glaze spraying technology
the digital glaze spraying technology, which began two years ago, has not made a major breakthrough this year. Although there are some small batch trials in Europe and it is due to the accuracy and status of control, there has been no mass production so far. I think the main reason is that fast drying ink (glaze slurry) is not easy to develop. Even if the nozzle can be sprayed out, there is no way to stack a good three-dimensional effect (3D) without fast drying, and it is impossible to make a mold effect to replace the mold to make a myriad of concave convex patterns. Therefore, there is still a long way to go in spraying glaze and 3D for ceramic tiles
VII. The breakthrough of inkjet embossing technology has become the only highlight of this year.
in the first half of the year, Nobel took the lead in releasing inkjet embossing polished bricks, and then Dongpeng and Mona Lisa successively launched mass production. However, they all adopt foreign materials and technologies, with small output and high cost. About 20-30 yuan will be added per square meter. In the second half of the year, domestic peers rose to catch up. At present, many color glaze enterprises have broken through the flower penetration inkjet technology, reached the pilot test and mass production stage, and mass production is just around the corner. This is a great achievement, because only when we master the relevant technologies (inkjet, ink, process), it is possible to use good cost performance to promote and expand the market, and bring a little sunshine to the ceramic industry
generally speaking, the inkjet machine and ink market in 2015 were all spent in fierce market competition. The market volume and price have fallen together, the suppliers' profits are meager or at a loss, and the recovery of accounts receivable is difficult. The operation risk of the project has been great. It is an absolute Red Sea market
2016 market outlook
as summarized above, the current inkjet market, like China's economy, also encountered three periods of superposition, including the deterioration and integration period of the ceramic tile market, the saturation period of machine popularization and the bottleneck period of technological innovation. Therefore, it is predicted that the construction ceramics market will remain difficult and the competition will remain fierce next year. Our preliminary prediction:
first, the demand for inkjet machines will further slow down, and it is expected that there will be only 300~400 inkjet machines in the whole year. (if a breakthrough is made in the mass production of inkjet embossing, the number will increase.)
second, the demand for ink is stable and declining, the competition is more intense, and the price has further bottomed out. It is also possible to exceed 50000/ton. The actual output of ceramic tiles this year is estimated to fall back to less than 8billion square meters. According to the prediction of the Ceramic Association, due to the sluggish demand for real estate, the demand for ceramic tiles will fall further to less than 7billion square meters next year. In this way, although the machine has increased, the ink consumption is not expected to increase
third, by the way, calculate the market size here: in terms of machines, the average price of a single inkjet machine is about 1million yuan (because there are more small machines than large machines). Therefore, the market sales next year will be about 300 to 400 million yuan. In terms of ink, there are more than 3500 machines. According to the startup rate of 70%, the actual operation is about 2500. Each machine consumes 1 ton per month, with an average monthly consumption of 2500 tons. Based on 55000 yuan per ton, it is about 140million yuan per month, and about 1.4 billion yuan in ten working days a year. It can be seen that the market scale of inkjet machines and inks is significantly reduced compared with the prediction of the previous two years, and the number of manufacturers that can be accommodated is also reduced. At present, there are more than 10 inkjet machines and ink brands operating in China. Under the circumstances of such low gross profit and such high risk, the market operation cannot be in balance, and it is inevitable to continue to shuffle
I. is there any innovation in the inkjet machine?
in terms of models, at present, the major inkjet brands have made many sub models. There are eight channels, no matter how many. Large and small machines, single and double-layer channels, pull-out design, automatic cleaning, etc., have all the practical functions you can think of, and innovation is not easy
in terms of nozzles, Xaar covers 6 to 160pl from gs6, gs12 to GS40, which is of little significance. Other nozzles, such as Toshiba, Seiko, Konica and Xingguang, have their own characteristics, but none of them has groundbreaking performance that makes everyone feel that they should be replaced. For example, the starlight sprinkler, which has attracted more attention recently, has a larger spray force, and it is suitable to make dark antique bricks, but the porcelain chips and full throw used to make ordinary jade and marble veins are not as delicate as Xaar sprinkler. Therefore, it is only suitable for some market segments, and it is not technically disruptive
the commercial production of hazrlett continuous casting and rolling process has a history of more than 50 years. Is there any improvement in parts? I think so. For example, by improving the software to improve the efficiency and effect of customers in drawing adjustment and color matching, optimize the way of drawing disassembly, optimize the ink combination and save ink, so as to improve the hair color effect. However, these require close cooperation between machine manufacturers and users to make progress
second, the direction of ink
functional inks can make a difference: non slip, antibacterial, shiny, matte, white and so on. Enriching these products and expanding market segments can not only reduce the positive conflict between suppliers, but also increase the benefits of ink enterprises and ceramic manufacturers
it is difficult to differentiate inkjet machines, but there is still a way to differentiate inks. For example, do not take the low price route. Increase the ink cost slightly, improve the quality, stability and price. It is calculated that at present, the market share of the two major imported ink brands (itaka and taolixi) is more than 20%. Their foundation is that the quality is better than that of domestic ones, and the price has also greatly enhanced the unity and cooperation of developing countries, which is about 20% higher than that of domestic ones. Peers can learn from this
vigorously invest in the research and development of inking technology, break through the thresholds of hair color brightness, penetration depth, stability, ease of use, cost and so on, make inkjet inking tiles a new favorite in the domestic polished brick market, and increase the profitability of peers. Only with the active participation of domestic peers and the development of better cost-effective technologies can the market be expanded. At present, the cost of using foreign products will increase by more than 20 yuan per square meter, and there is still a lot of room for localization. In the field of polished brick production technology, ink-jet bleeding technology has its own advantages and disadvantages with the current mature fabric technology and full polishing technology, and it is inevitable that each will occupy a certain market share in the future. Xinjingtai has been engaged in research and development since this year. At present, it has also reached the stage of mass production. It is willing to work with our customers to create an inkjet infiltrated flower